Stock Price Projection Calculator
Compute future prices for any stock.
Computational Notes
Stock Symbol: is for display only. The calculator does not include or use any historical prices.
Starting Price ($): assign any starting price.
Projection Period (Number Months): is total number of months of projected prices.
Average Change of Monthly Price (%): is called Trend. A negative Trend represents a price downside. A 0 Trend represents a flat price trend. A positive Trend represents a price upside. The model is particularly sensitive to the value of Trend. Increasing this value will increase the magnitude of projected prices.
Variability of Average Change in Monthly Price (%): can be negative, 0 or positive. Increasing this value will increase the variability of projected prices.
Random Number Seed: determines the first random component. A given seed will generate a unique sequence of random components. To generate another unique sequence of random components, enter a different seed. Enter a positive integer number.
The Stock Price Projection Calculator uses the following recursive formula that is a random walk with drift:
Price = Trend + Previous Price + Random Component * Projected Variability in Average Change in Monthly Price (%).
Where:
Price is the new generated monthly price.
Previous Price is the previous price.
Random Component is a normally distributed variable with a specified mean and standard deviation. The Random Component causes the variation in computed prices. For each price the model generates a random component using the Box-Muller transform.
The Random Component is multiplied by the Projected Variability in Average Change in Monthly Price (%).
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