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Comparison of S&P 500 2000 Bubble to Current Pattern of Gains

The figure below shows two charts of total percent gains for the S&P 500. The blue chart traces the price bubble from March 1995 through the August 2000 peak. The chart ends January 2003 to show the downside after the peak. The black chart shows the gains from the March 2009 bottom through the current price. Each chart plots total percent gain from the start month for each month in the price sequence.

The percent gains data used in the charts are derived from S&P 500 monthly nominal price data from Yale University economist Robert Shiller and found at Quandl.

Click chart to enlarge it.


The duration of the current upside is longer than the duration of the 1995 through 2000 bubble. But the total gains for the upside of the 1995 to 2000 bubble were generally higher than the corresponding elapsed period of the current upside. However, the recent gains of the current upside are greater the total gain at the August 2000 peak.

Compared to the 2000 bubble, the current upside seems over extended.


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