Pioneering Studies in Socionomics

Review of Pioneering Studies in Socionomics

Pioneering Studies in Socionomics is a follow-up to the well-received introductory text, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the New Science of Socionomics. The primary purpose of both books is to show how socionomics can be used to evaluate social mood and make social predictions.

Pioneering Studies in Socionomics is a chronicle of sociological studies and forecasts made by Pete Kendall and Bob Prechter and guest contributors between 1985 and 2002. The topics of the essays range from popular culture to quantum physics. And many of the articles are from Bob Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist.

In the Forward: A Socionomics Manifesto Prechter states, "This book is about using socionomics to evaluate social conditions and make social predictions." As you read the book, you will find many well-documented examples of how changes in social mood dictates changes in social events.

The following two quotes from the first two articles in Social Causality sum up the fundamental message of the science of socionomics. On page 64 Prechter writes, "Because social mood change as revealed by stock market's form, is patterned according to the Wave Principle, we can propose a larger socionomics hypothesis, that the Wave Principle ultimately shapes the dynamics underlying the character of all human social activity." He continues the thought on page 66, "... social mood trends, as reflected by the trends of the stock market, determine the direction of economic activity." So according to socionomics, economic activity does not determine broad stock market trends and other social events.

Unlike many of Prechter's other books, which are best read cover to cover, with Pioneering Studies in Socionomics you can pick and choose the articles in any order. But I suggest that you have a good understanding of the Elliott Wave Principle before your read the book. Chapter 1 of The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the New Science of Socionomics is sufficient to get you started. If you want to study a complete treatment of Elliott waves, read Elliott Wave Principle by A. J. Frost and Robert Prechter, Jr.

The more that I read of Prechter's work the more I appreciate the Wave Principle. I am primarily interested in making money with stocks in the short term, so much of my time is spent looking for opportunities to make a quick profitable trade. But Prechter is forcing me to think about the longer term and a bigger picture. For example, I am thinking how I can apply the Wave Principle and socionomics to my long-term investment plans.

I am not concerned with trying to explain mankind's behavior as is Prechter, but I am concerned with structuring a robust investment portfolio that can withstand the vagaries of an uncertain social and economic future. To that end, I believe that many of Prechter's ideas will be useful to me and you.

Therefore, I can recommend, without reservation, Pioneering Studies in Socionomics and its companion book The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the New Science of Socionomics.

Also, be sure to view History's Hidden Engine, a free entertaining and informative video all about the Elliott Wave Principle, socionomics and much more. Click here for a three-minute excerpt of the video.


Brief Summary of Each Part

I have included a brief overview of each of the nine parts of the book. I use quotations taken from the articles to emphasize key points.

Popular Culture describes how trends for types of movies, interest in religion, Broadway theater ticket sales and popularity of dining out are related to the trends of the broad stock market. Prechter uses these different examples to show how social mood dictates social actions.

The Sports articles discuss how Olympic participation, duration of careers of professional athletes, baseball and basketball attendance, and more follow the Wave Principle.

In Corporations, Legislation and Social Conflict Prechter discusses how the wave Principle explains and predicts social events including the ups and downs of major brands like Coca-Cola and Microsoft to the outbreak of World wars.

I have wandered how Prechter explains that the role feedback loops play in dynamic social systems. In the article Challenging the Conventional Assumptions Prechter answers my question. He states, "I used to think that mood formed a feedback loop with events, which in turn reinforced the mood. I have since seen this idea to be erroneous." He continues, "If events formed a feedback loop with mood, then social trends would never end." These observations seem to be at odds with conventional thinking about the cause and effect of social events.

Toward a Revolution in Macroeconomics studies how predictions of economic activity differ using traditional economics and the new socionomics.

In Toward a New Understanding of Growth and Recession, Boom and Depression, guest essayist H. C. Douglas, an economics professor, supports Bob Prechter's contention that the Wave Principle explains changes in economic activities more accurately the current macroeconomic theory.

Science and the Wave Principle includes articles about the fractal nature of financial, biological and social systems.

Controversy and Validation is the intriguing but disturbing story of how Benoit Mandelbroit, a famous mathematician, ripped off R. N. Elliott's work on the fractal nature of the broad stock market. Mandelbroit's intellectual plagiarism was blatant and many people in the scientific community castigated him.

In Socionomics and Quantum Physics Prechter discusses the theory of elementary waves, a theory propounded by a physics professor named Lewis E. Little. Prechter uses this new theory to tell how long-standing "truisms" are often dispelled by a new revolutionary idea. I know nothing about modern physics, so I have no idea whether Little's ides have any merit. But I did search for published books by him and found none, so I am not sure whether his ideas have been accepted.

Miscellaneous Articles, Letters, Speeches and Observations are just that.

Response to a Question from a Renowned Scientist is a succinct explanation why social mood dictates the character of social events.

The Appendix: Toward Quantifying Sociometers Other Than the Stock Market has a gem that Bob Prechter wrote in college with the rather long-winded title, An Investigation of Achievement Motive Level as Expressed in the Musical Art Forms Appreciated by Today's Youth, and Implications. Even at 19-years old he was a thinker.

Reviewed by Richard Howard. To read my reviews of other books by Bob Prechter, click here.

Posted February 2, 2007.

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