Phizer is on the Downside - Avoid Buying It for Now

Pfizer (PFE), a stock that I (Richard Howard) own, announced on December 17, 2004 that its pain killer Celebrex was found to increase the risk of heart failure when taken in high doses. The stock closed down over 11% on very heavy volume. Investors did not know the bad news was coming that day but those of us who know bad things happen on the downside should not have been too surprised. Since it peaked in June 2000, PFE has been on the downside. The stock did rally from February 2003 through January 2004 but then prices headed down.

No one knows what the future holds for Pfizer's stock price but since it continues on the downside, a prudent investor should avoid buying it for now.

The Complete Trading Model (CTM) analysis of the 1,485 monthly buy and sell combinations from the peak through December 17, 2004 tells the story of the price decline.

The CTM percent returns chart shows that only 21.89% (green area) of the buy and sell combinations made money. Most of the profitable trades occurred during the February to January rally. These trades are shown in the relatively large green area in the front right of the chart.

The other 78.11% (red area) buy and sell combinations were losers. So few investors who bought on the downside made money.

The CTM winners and losers map shows the large red area of losing buy and sell combinations.