| CTM Topics
CTM Basic Topics
CTM Technical Topics
Table of Related Links
One of the most important messages to investors on buyupside.com
is to only buy when prices are on the upside. And do not buy when
prices are on the downside. The Complete Trading Model (CTM) is
a technical analysis tool that explains why these two rules are
valid. CTM does the following:
-
Analyzes all of the buy and sell combinations (trades)
for a price series. CTM computes the number and frequency of
winning and losing trades for the price series.
-
Indicates when prices move from the downside to the upside.
-
Indicates when price move from the upside to the downside.
Based on the price moves you can decide whether to buy, sell or
hold.
CTM analysis of the price series of all types of stocks and other
investments shows conclusively that buying on the upside
leads to profits most of the time and buying on the downside leads
to losses most of the time. Therefore, you should buy on the upside
and avoid buying on the downside.
For definition of CTM of terms and concepts read the Complete
Trading Model (CTM) Glossary. For a quick preview of the CTM
charts see the CTM Chart Gallery.
CTM Topics
Here is a list of topics that describe CTM in detail. The first
group of topics describe the CTM basics. The second group of topics
are more technical and are intended for CTM devotees.
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CTM Basic Topics
Buy and Sell Combinations
- An Explanation
Explains the concept of a buy and sell combination, defines the
formula to compute the number of buy and sell combinations for a
given price series, and gives examples of buy and sell combinations.
CTM Trade Table
Describes the CTM trade, CTM Trade Table and gives an example of
a CTM analysis for a 10-price series. The chapter introduces the
three CTM trade types: buy upside/sell
upside, buy upside/sell downside and buy downside/sell downside.
Buy on the Downside
and Sell on the Next Upside analyzes this problematic strategy
of making money.
Analysis of the CTM
Trade Table
Presents a detailed CTM analysis of an actual 109-price series
for Kulicke & Soffa, a cyclical semiconductor equipment manufacturer.
Detecting the Upside
Describes how CTM uses price, cumulative
percent winners and cumulative
return to decide if prices have changed from the downside to
the upside.
Detecting the Downside
Describes how CTM uses price, cumulative
percent winners and cumulative
return to decide if prices have changed from the upside to the
downside.
Web-based
Buy and Sell Combinations Calculator
Free calculator computes the percent winners and losers for any
price series.
Setting and Confirming Buy
and Sell Signals for Cyclical Price Patterns
Use the 20-day simple moving average od daily closes and cumulative
percent winners and cumulative returns to set and confirm buy and
sell signals.
2-Dimensional Percent
Return Chart
All trades of each trade type are color coded.
3-Dimensional Percent
Return Chart
This chart shows the percent return for each trade of a price series
on a 3- dimensional chart. The winning trades appear in green above
the floor of the chart and the losing trades appear in red below
the chart floor. The 3-dimensional chart is a visually pleasing
representation of the CTM Trade Table and we include the chart in
many CTM examples.
CTM Chart Gallery
The CTM chart page gives many examples of CTM charts.
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CTM Technical Topics
3-Dimensional Annualized
Return Chart
This chart is similar to the 3-dimensional percent return chart
except it displays the annualized return of each CTM trade. Many
3-dimensional annualized return chart examples are found in the
Chart Gallery.
Winners and Losers Map
Displays the winners and losers for a price series on a flat map
shown from a direct overhead perspective. The map has no relief
as shown in a CTM 3-dimensional percent return chart.
Relative Performance
Chart
Compares the performance of a stock with another stock, a stock
with an index or an index with another index. Displays the relative
performance as a 3-dimensional CTM percent return chart and a winners
and losers map format.
Measures of Return
Describes how to measure the return of a trade. Return measures
include: dollar return, percentage return, average annual return
and annualized return.
Presents many charts showing CTM annualized returns plotted against
time held. Discusses the effect of holding period on returns.
CTM Buy Curves
Charts of CTM percent returns over buy date and buy price.
CTM Sell Curves
Charts of CTM percent returns over sell date and sell price.
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Table of Related Links
This table gives related links for the CTM basic and technical
topics.
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Updated November 19, 2008.
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